Lebanon
Lebanon (LB)CRITICALMiddle East · pop. 5,490,000 · GDP 18,097 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Current status
Lebanon faces an acute escalation in military conflict with 335 critical and high-severity events recorded over the past 30 days, including conventional military operations, economic blockades, and chemical weapons incidents. The situation has deteriorated sharply from already fragile baseline conditions, with active combat operations concentrated in southern Lebanon and Mount Lebanon regions. This represents a fundamental shift from Lebanon's chronic economic and governance challenges to active warfare affecting core infrastructure and trade routes.
Supply chain impact
- Jewelry and precious metals supply chains face immediate disruption as Lebanon's key export industry operates under wartime conditions, affecting European and Gulf buyers who source Lebanese crafted jewelry and gemstone processing services.
- Regional logistics hubs serving Middle East distribution networks are compromised, with Beirut port operations likely constrained by security protocols and potential infrastructure damage from ongoing military actions.
- Banking and financial services supporting regional trade finance are severely impacted, disrupting letters of credit and payment processing for importers across the Levant corridor.
- Machinery imports essential for Lebanon's industrial base face delays or cancellation due to economic blockade measures and security restrictions on commercial shipping.
- Land transport routes connecting Syria, Lebanon, and regional markets are operating under heightened risk, forcing cargo rerouting through alternative corridors with increased costs and transit times.
Watch points
- Monitor Beirut port operational status and any formal closure announcements that would force regional cargo rerouting through Cyprus, Turkey, or Israeli ports.
- Track escalation indicators including any expansion of military operations beyond current southern and central Lebanon zones, particularly toward northern industrial areas and the Syrian border.
- Watch for banking sector operational disruptions that could freeze trade finance for regional importers and affect broader Middle East commercial transactions.
Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- CRITICALEconomic blockade in Liban-Sud, Lebanon2026-06-14
- CRITICALUnconventional violence in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-13
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Lebanon2026-06-11
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Lebanon2026-06-11
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Lebanon2026-06-11
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Lebanon2026-06-11
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Lebanon2026-06-11
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-10
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Lebanon2026-06-10
- CRITICALBomb attack in Lebanon2026-06-10
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-06-09
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-06-09
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-06-08
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-06-08
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-08
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-08
- CRITICALBlockade/siege in Lebanon2026-06-08
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-08
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-06-08
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-08
Related News (30)
- Lebanon Reports Israeli Strikes in South After Evacuation Warninggdnonline.com·2026-06-14
Economic blockade reported in Jezzine, Liban-Sud, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 10 sources.
- Hezbollah Was Militarily Defeated But Holding Lebanon And The Shiite Community Hostage fm Saysyalibnan.com·2026-06-13
Unconventional violence reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, SHIITE. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 10 sources.
- us Launches New Strikes After Trump Threatens to Attack Iran Very Hardeconomictimes.indiatimes.com·2026-06-11
Use conventional military force reported in Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, ISRAEL. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- us Launches More Air Strikes Against Iran After Trump Threatsbreakingnews.ie·2026-06-11
Use conventional military force reported in Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- un to Send Investigators to Lebanon Over Potential Law Breachesfreemalaysiatoday.com·2026-06-10
Bomb attack reported in Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, ISRAEL. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Lebanonazernews.az·2026-06-10
Use conventional military force reported in Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 7 sources.
- Catholic Nuncio Visits Lebanese Christians Defying Israel Evacuation Ordersbreitbart.com·2026-06-10
Use conventional military force reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 7 sources.
- Eight Killed in Lebanon Strike Why Peace Between Iran And Israel Remains Elusive Despite Trump s Deal is Close Claim Articlemoneycontrol.com·2026-06-09
Use conventional military force reported in Marjayoun, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANESE, RESIDENTS. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Mil Presstv04globalsecurity.org·2026-06-08
Tank/artillery attack reported in Marjayoun, Nabatî, Lebanon. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Nabatî, Lebanonenglish.wafa.ps·2026-06-08
Use conventional military force reported in Ain Qana, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Physical attack in Nabatî, Lebanonokaz.com.sa·2026-06-08
Physical attack reported in Zefta, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 5 sources.
- Mil Presstv01globalsecurity.org·2026-06-08
Use conventional military force reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: OCCUPIED TERRITORIES, BEIRUT. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 7 sources.
- Mil Presstv01globalsecurity.org·2026-06-08
Military force (coercive) reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Israel Presstv01globalsecurity.org·2026-06-08
Military force (coercive) reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: REGIME, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Mil Presstv05globalsecurity.org·2026-06-08
Use conventional military force reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Trump Urges Restraint as Israel Iran Tensions Threaten Fragile Peace Talkseconotimes.com·2026-06-08
Use conventional military force reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, ISRAEL. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Oil Prices Today us Iran Missile Middle East Israel Opeccnbc.com·2026-06-08
Blockade/siege reported in Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, REGIME. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 5 sources.
- a Timeline of The Escalating Tensions Between Iran And Israel Over Lebanonwinnipegfreepress.com·2026-06-08
Tank/artillery attack reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Tank/artillery attack in Mont-Liban, Lebanonsana.sy·2026-06-07
Tank/artillery attack reported in Zebdine, Mont-Liban, Lebanon. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- New Exchange of Fire With Iran Tests Fragile Ceasefiretheshillongtimes.com·2026-06-07
Tank/artillery attack reported in Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Israeli Strikes Kill 7 in South Lebanons Tyreradio.gov.pk·2026-06-06
Physical attack reported in Jabal Amel, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 8 sources.
- Mass violence in Beyrouth, Lebanonnakedcapitalism.com·2026-06-06
Mass violence reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: IRAN, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Lebanonrttnews.com·2026-06-05
Use conventional military force reported in Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Bomb attack in Nabatî, Lebanonjpost.com·2026-06-05
Bomb attack reported in Beaufort Castle, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, ISRAEL. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Lebanon Berri Hezbollah US Israelpresstv.ir·2026-06-05
Legal detention reported in Lebanon. Actors: REGIME, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -9.2 · 4 sources.
- Iran Rferl03globalsecurity.org·2026-06-04
Economic blockade reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 3 sources.
- Ceasefire Depends on Hezbollahnewser.com·2026-06-04
Chemical weapons used reported in Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- a Living Archive of Lebanon Hefeljamesprogressive.org·2026-06-04
Economic blockade reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 3 sources.
- Hezbollah Rejects Ceasefire Plan Declared Washington Israel Keeps up Strikesalgemeiner.com·2026-06-04
Economic blockade reported in Marjayoun, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, ISRAELI. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 8 sources.
- Mil Presstv06globalsecurity.org·2026-06-04
Show of force reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 3 sources.