Nigeria

Current status

Nigeria faces critically elevated security risks with 500 events recorded in the past 30 days, dominated by 289 critical and 206 high-severity incidents. Military operations have intensified across multiple states including Oyo, Borno, Edo, and Delta, driven by counter-terrorism activities against ISIS and other armed groups. The security deterioration coincides with ongoing drug trafficking interdictions affecting international supply routes.

Supply chain impact

• Oil and gas exports face significant disruption risk as military operations concentrate in Delta state, a major petroleum production hub, threatening crude oil shipments to global refineries and LNG exports to European and Asian markets.
• Cocoa supply chains from southwestern Nigeria are under pressure due to security operations in Oyo state, potentially affecting chocolate manufacturers and commodity traders relying on Nigerian cocoa beans for global markets.
• Port operations in Lagos and other coastal facilities may experience delays or capacity constraints as security forces redirect resources to counter-terrorism operations, impacting container throughput and cargo dwell times.
• International logistics providers serving West African routes should expect heightened cargo screening procedures and potential transit delays, particularly for shipments transiting through affected northern and southwestern regions.
• Drug interdiction operations targeting UK and Australia-bound shipments indicate compromised supply chain security, requiring enhanced due diligence for freight forwarders and customs brokers handling Nigerian exports.

Watch points

• Monitor oil production levels and export terminal security in Delta state, as sustained military operations could trigger force majeure declarations or production shutdowns affecting global crude oil supplies.
• Track escalation of security incidents in Borno state and broader northeastern Nigeria, where ISIS presence could disrupt agricultural supply chains and cross-border trade with Chad and Cameroon.
• Watch for changes in port security protocols and cargo processing times at Lagos and Port Harcourt, as counter-terrorism measures may introduce new screening requirements affecting vessel schedules and logistics costs.