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Pakistan

Pakistan (PK)CRITICAL

South Asia · pop. 240,485,000 · GDP 376,493 M USD

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Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk

Major industries

textilesagriculturemanufacturing

Major exports

textilesriceleather

30d events

20
events occurred · risk score 100/100

AI Brief

Current status

Pakistan faces severe security deterioration with 500 events recorded over the past 30 days, including 339 critical and 160 high-severity incidents concentrated on May 17th. Military operations, chemical weapons deployment, and widespread violence across Balochistan, Punjab, Sindh, and the capital Islamabad indicate a dramatic escalation in internal conflict. The country's already poor governance indicators (stability at 12/100, corruption at 27/100) provide little buffer against this crisis.

Supply chain impact

  • Textile and garment buyers face immediate production disruptions as violence spreads across Punjab and Sindh provinces, where most manufacturing capacity is concentrated, potentially affecting $15+ billion in annual textile exports to the EU and US.
  • Rice export operations through Karachi port are at risk from security incidents in Sindh province, threatening food supply chains for Middle Eastern and African markets that depend on Pakistani basmati and non-basmati varieties.
  • Land-based trade routes connecting Central Asia to Arabian Sea ports via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor face severe disruption, particularly through Balochistan where military operations and chemical weapons use have been reported.
  • Leather goods production and export, primarily from Punjab, encounters operational challenges as the province experiences military action and civil unrest, affecting global footwear and automotive supply chains.
  • Transportation infrastructure including highways and rail connections between major commercial centers like Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad are compromised by widespread security incidents.

Watch points

  • Monitor port operations at Karachi and Gwadar for capacity reductions, shipping delays, or force majeure declarations as security conditions deteriorate in surrounding provinces.
  • Track international freight forwarder advisories and insurance rate adjustments for Pakistani cargo, as the concentration of critical events may trigger coverage restrictions or premium increases.
  • Watch for supplier communication gaps or production halt announcements from textile and manufacturing hubs, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, over the next 2-4 weeks as the security situation develops.

Risk by layer

Economic & political
45 eventsCRITICAL

90d risk trend

2026-03-202026-06-17

Structural risk profile

Corruption Perceptions (CPI)
27/100
rank #135
ti-cpi-2024
Voice & Accountability
33/100
rank #25
wb-wgi-2022
Political stability
12/100
rank #7
wb-wgi-2022
Government effectiveness
38/100
rank #29
wb-wgi-2022
Regulatory quality
32/100
rank #20
wb-wgi-2022
Rule of law
37/100
rank #25
wb-wgi-2022
Control of corruption
34/100
rank #23
wb-wgi-2022

Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)

Baked GoodscBovinescBrickscfcCarpetscfcCoalcfcCottonfDairy ProductscElectronicscFurniturecGarmentscGlass BanglescLeathercRicecSugarcanefSurgical InstrumentscTextilescWheatf

Produced commodities

No mapped commodities

Dependent chokepoints

No dependent chokepoints

Recent events (20)

Related News (30)