Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia (SA)CRITICALMiddle East · pop. 36,950,000 · GDP 1,108,571 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Current status
Saudi Arabia faces acute security deterioration with 75 critical and high-severity events over the past 30 days, including tank/artillery attacks near Riyadh and unconventional violence in Makkah. The escalation appears linked to covert regional conflict with Iran, with military operations targeting key population and economic centers. This represents the most severe threat environment for Saudi operations in recent years.
Supply chain impact
- Global crude oil markets face immediate supply disruption risk from attacks near Riyadh and potential targeting of energy infrastructure, with Saudi Arabia supplying approximately 10% of global crude oil exports.
- Petrochemical and plastics supply chains serving Asia-Pacific and European markets are vulnerable to production shutdowns at major facilities in the Eastern Province and around Riyadh.
- Holy city of Makkah incidents threaten religious tourism logistics and could trigger broader regional instability affecting Red Sea shipping routes to Suez Canal.
- Mining operations for phosphates and other industrial minerals face operational suspensions, impacting global fertilizer and chemical feedstock availability.
- Regional aviation hubs in Riyadh and Jeddah may experience capacity restrictions, disrupting air cargo flows between Europe, Asia, and Africa.
Watch points
- Monitor oil production facility status and any attacks on Aramco infrastructure, particularly around Ras Tanura and Jubail industrial complexes over the next two weeks.
- Track escalation patterns with Iran and potential expansion to other Gulf states, which could trigger broader regional supply chain disruptions.
- Watch for any restrictions on commercial shipping through Red Sea approaches to Suez Canal if regional military activities intensify.
Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Saudi Arabia2026-06-08
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Saudi Arabia2026-06-08
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Saudi Arabia2026-06-05
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Ar Riya?, Saudi Arabia2026-06-04
- HIGHArrest/detain in Saudi Arabia2026-06-01
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in Saudi Arabia2026-05-28
- CRITICALPhysical attack in Makkah, Saudi Arabia2026-05-28
- CRITICALBomb attack in Ar Riya?, Saudi Arabia2026-05-28
- CRITICALAssassination in Saudi Arabia2026-05-25
- HIGHArrest/detain in Makkah, Saudi Arabia2026-05-25
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Al Madinah, Saudi Arabia2026-05-25
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia2026-05-25
- CRITICALNuclear alert in Makkah, Saudi Arabia2026-05-25
- CRITICALUnconventional violence in Saudi Arabia2026-05-24
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Saudi Arabia2026-05-23
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia2026-05-23
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Saudi Arabia2026-05-22
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Saudi Arabia2026-05-22
- HIGHRiot in Saudi Arabia2026-05-21
- CRITICALBomb attack in Saudi Arabia2026-05-20
Related News (16)
- Reports of Attack on Prince Sultan Air Base Are False Saudi Ministry Sayseurasiareview.com·2026-06-08
Use conventional military force reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: PRINCE, SAUDI. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Surrey University Crossbow Attack Guildford Almunthir Daqamah bindependent.co.uk·2026-06-05
Use conventional military force reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA, STUDENT. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Saudi Arabia Launches Flexible Working Hours in Riyadheconomictimes.indiatimes.com·2026-06-04
Use conventional military force reported in Riyadh, Ar Riya?, Saudi Arabia. Actors: RIYADH, BUSINESS. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Kebbi Hisbah Arrests Youths For Alleged Mock Hajj Ritualsdailypost.ng·2026-06-01
Arrest/detain reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: GOVERNMENT, SAUDI ARABIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Bomb attack in Ar Riya?, Saudi Arabiacity.udn.com·2026-05-28
Bomb attack reported in Riyadh, Ar Riya?, Saudi Arabia. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA, REUTERS. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 7 sources.
- Taylor Swift Concert Attack Plot Suspect to be Sentenced in Austriafreemalaysiatoday.com·2026-05-28
Physical attack reported in Mecca, Makkah, Saudi Arabia. Actors: MECCA, SAUDI ARABIA. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 6 sources.
- Indonesia Logs Us126 Million Potential Food Trade at Singapore Expoen.antaranews.com·2026-05-28
Military force (coercive) reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: TRADE MINIST, SAUDI. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 7 sources.
- Enppi Secures 355mn Oman Gas Contract in Gulf Expansion Milestonemeobserver.org·2026-05-25
Assassination reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA, COMPANY. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Thousands of Iranians Travel to Saudi Arabia in a Tense War Time Pilgrimagelivemint.com·2026-05-25
Nuclear alert reported in Mecca, Makkah, Saudi Arabia. Actors: SAUDI, SECURITY FORCE. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 5 sources.
- Photos of Suspect Behind Kidnapping Andkenyan-post.com·2026-05-24
Unconventional violence reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 10 sources.
- us Slight Progress in Iran Talks as War Uncertainty Growstheshillongtimes.com·2026-05-23
Use conventional military force reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- The Untold Suffering Bangladeshi Workers During Hajjthedailystar.net·2026-05-23
Military force (coercive) reported in Makkah, Makkah, Saudi Arabia. Actors: MAKKAH. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Iraq Investigates Drone Attack on Uae Nuclear Plantbreitbart.com·2026-05-22
Use conventional military force reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Mohamed Fahmy How Iraq Became Irans Launch Point For Terrorismnationalpost.com·2026-05-22
Use conventional military force reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Riot in Saudi Arabiaynetnews.com·2026-05-21
Riot reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 6 sources.
- The United Arab Emirates is Playing Its Own Gamewattsupwiththat.com·2026-05-20
Bomb attack reported in Saudi Arabia. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.