Sudan
Sudan (SD)CRITICALNorth Africa · pop. 47,960,000 · GDP 29,989 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Sudan's civil war escalated sharply this week with 90 critical-severity incidents including military operations in Darfur and political assassinations in Khartoum. Gold and oil export disruptions from Port Sudan remain the primary supply chain risk.
Current status
Sudan's security environment has deteriorated sharply over the past 30 days, with 156 recorded incidents including 116 critical-severity events concentrated around military operations in Khartoum and the Kurdufan regions. Active conventional military operations and tribal clashes have intensified, particularly in North and South Kordofan states, while humanitarian conditions continue degrading with severe food insecurity warnings from the UN.
Supply chain impact
- Gold and crude oil exports face severe disruption as military operations concentrate around key producing regions in North and South Kordofan, where much of Sudan's mineral extraction occurs.
- Livestock supply chains to regional markets in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states are compromised by ongoing clashes in pastoral areas and deteriorating transport infrastructure.
- Agricultural exports including gum arabic, sesame, and cotton are at risk given Sudan's role as a significant supplier to European and Asian markets, with fighting affecting farming regions.
- Red Sea shipping lanes remain vulnerable to spillover effects, as Sudan's Port Sudan serves as a critical transit hub for landlocked Chad and South Sudan's oil exports.
- European and Asian buyers of Sudanese commodities should expect continued export delays and quality control issues due to breakdown of government oversight and inspection capabilities.
Watch points
- Monitor escalation of tribal clashes in South Kordofan, as this region produces significant portions of Sudan's exportable livestock and agricultural products.
- Track humanitarian corridor access and UN operations, as further restrictions could signal complete breakdown of remaining export infrastructure.
- Watch for Ethiopian troop movements along the border, as reported military buildup could expand conflict beyond current Kurdufan focus areas and affect cross-border trade routes.
Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- LOWActive wildfire cluster in SD (34 detections)2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Al Jazirah, Sudan2026-06-13
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in SD (219 detections)2026-06-13
- CRITICALEconomic blockade in Nahr an Nil, Sudan2026-06-13
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in SD (227 detections)2026-06-12
- MEDIUMActive wildfire cluster in SD (56 detections)2026-06-11
- HIGHExpel/deport in Sudan2026-06-10
- MEDIUMActive wildfire cluster in SD (60 detections)2026-06-10
- HIGHArrest/detain in Sudan2026-06-09
- MEDIUMActive wildfire cluster in SD (57 detections)2026-06-09
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Sudan2026-06-09
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Shamal Darfur, Sudan2026-06-09
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Sudan2026-06-09
- MEDIUMActive wildfire cluster in SD (100 detections)2026-06-08
- HIGHReduce diplomatic ties in Al Khartum, Sudan2026-06-08
- MEDIUMActive wildfire cluster in SD (119 detections)2026-06-07
- LOWActive wildfire cluster in SD (47 detections)2026-06-06
- LOWActive wildfire cluster in SD (35 detections)2026-06-05
- MEDIUMWildfire in Sudan — Green alert2026-06-04
- MEDIUMActive wildfire cluster in SD (97 detections)2026-06-04
Related News (20)
- Economic blockade in Nahr an Nil, Sudanthereporterethiopia.com·2026-06-13
Economic blockade reported in Nile, Nahr an Nil, Sudan. Actors: MILITARY, SUDAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 10 sources.
- Climate Change Crisis Refugeestheguardian.com·2026-06-10
Expel/deport reported in Sudan. Actors: SUDAN, DOCTOR. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Sudanese Man Charged Attempted Murder Belfast 5HjdbL5 2lbc.co.uk·2026-06-09
Arrest/detain reported in Sudan. Actors: SUDANESE, UNITED KINGDOM. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Sudanel-balad.com·2026-06-09
Use conventional military force reported in Sudan. Actors: SUDAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Conflicts on Rise Globally Highest Level Since Wwii Data Showsaspenpublicradio.org·2026-06-09
Use conventional military force reported in El Fasher, Shamal Darfur, Sudan. Actors: SUDANESE, SUDAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 12 sources.
- Beyond The Red Sea Irans Sudan Strategy Opedeurasiareview.com·2026-06-08
Reduce diplomatic ties reported in Khartoum, Al Khartum, Sudan. Actors: IRANIAN, KHARTOUM. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 8 sources.
- Colombians Atrocities Trainedjuancole.com·2026-05-30
Nuclear alert reported in Darfur, Gharb Darfur, Sudan. Actors: COLOMBIAN, SUDAN. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 5 sources.
- Use conventional military force in An Nil al Azraq, Sudanokaz.com.sa·2026-05-27
Use conventional military force reported in Blue Nile, An Nil al Azraq, Sudan. Actors: ARMY, SUDAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Mass destruction in Gharb Darfur, Sudanallafrica.com·2026-05-26
Mass destruction reported in Darfur, Gharb Darfur, Sudan. Actors: TERRORIST, DARFUR. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Man Pleads Guilty Over Deathsyahoo.com·2026-05-26
Arrest/detain reported in Sudan. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 7 sources.
- Drones Turn Sudans Forgotten War Into Relentless Civilian Killing Fieldlatimes.com·2026-05-24
Economic blockade reported in Darfur, Gharb Darfur, Sudan. Actors: SUDANESE, DARFUR. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 6 sources.
- Economic blockade in Al Khartum, Sudanindcatholicnews.com·2026-05-22
Economic blockade reported in Khartoum, Al Khartum, Sudan. Actors: SUDANESE, KHARTOUM. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 6 sources.
- Sudan War Leaves Churches in Ruinschristianitytoday.com·2026-05-22
Bomb attack reported in El Fasher, Shamal Darfur, Sudan. Actors: SUDAN, AFRICA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Drone Strike by Rebels in Southern Sudan Injures 6 Destroys Medical Suppliesaa.com.tr·2026-05-21
Physical attack reported in Kordofan, Shamal Kurdufan, Sudan. Actors: SUDAN, REBEL. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 10 sources.
- Sudanese Refugees Find Gospel Hope Amid Civil War Traumamnnonline.org·2026-05-21
Economic blockade reported in El Fasher, Shamal Darfur, Sudan. Actors: SUDANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 3 sources.
- un Envoy Calls For Transition to Civilian Rule in Sudanthenationalnews.com·2026-05-21
Reduce diplomatic ties reported in Sudan. Actors: SUDAN, MUSLIM. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 6 sources.
- Drone Strike Hits a Busy Market in Kordofan Sudanmoderntokyotimes.com·2026-05-20
Chemical weapons used reported in Darfur, Gharb Darfur, Sudan. Actors: SUDAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Economic blockade in Shamal Kurdufan, Sudankoreaherald.com·2026-05-20
Economic blockade reported in Kordofan, Shamal Kurdufan, Sudan. Actors: SUDAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 10 sources.
- UN Sanctioned RSF Commander Abu Lulu Returns to Battlefielddiplomat.so·2026-05-19
Use conventional military force reported in Kordofan, Shamal Kurdufan, Sudan. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Western Ambassadors Clamp Down on War Economy, Artafricaintelligence.com·2026-05-19
Arrest/detain reported in Sudan. Actors: SUDAN, AMBASSADOR. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.