Syria

Current status

Syria faces extreme supply chain disruption with 189 critical and high-severity events recorded over the past 30 days, including widespread military operations and chemical weapons incidents across major population centers. The conflict has intensified significantly, with conventional military force being deployed in key commercial hubs including Damascus, Aleppo, and Al Hasakah. Political upheaval following Assad's apparent fall has created a security vacuum affecting all economic activity.

Supply chain impact

• Crude oil exports from Syria's eastern fields near Al Hasakah are severely compromised due to ongoing military operations, affecting regional energy supply chains and forcing importers to seek alternative sources.
• Agricultural exports including fruits and textiles face complete disruption as conflict zones encompass major production areas around Damascus and Aleppo, Syria's primary commercial centers.
• Cross-border trade routes through Syria connecting Europe, Asia, and the Gulf are effectively closed, forcing logistics providers to reroute shipments through Turkey, Jordan, or maritime alternatives at significantly higher costs.
• Manufacturing operations supporting textile exports have ceased in conflict-affected areas, impacting European and regional buyers dependent on Syrian cotton and finished goods.
• Humanitarian supply chains face extreme challenges with hospitals reportedly compromised and civilian infrastructure under attack, complicating aid delivery operations.

Watch points

• Monitor whether new Syrian authorities can establish control over oil infrastructure in Al Hasakah province, as this will determine when energy exports might resume and affect regional pricing.
• Track Israeli military activities in southwestern Syria and their impact on border crossings with Jordan, which could affect alternative routing options for regional trade.
• Watch for UAE trade normalization efforts as reported, which could signal early opportunities for supply chain restoration once security conditions stabilize.