[China] Use conventional military force

Summary

A military force use event occurred in China on April 14, 2024, with high severity at tension index -10 and reported by 10 media outlets. While the specific region and scale remain unconfirmed, it is classified as critical grade with significant supply-chain impacts expected.

Supply-chain impact

• Manufacturing hub risks — Potential disruption to global electronics, automotive parts, and textile supply chains if access to major Chinese manufacturing regions is restricted
• Rare earth and critical mineral supply risks — Concerns over mining, processing, and export interruptions as China accounts for over 60% of global rare earth production
• Maritime logistics route impact — Delays in Asia-Europe/North America routes if major ports including Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen face operational disruptions
• Semiconductor and battery material supply chains — Increased instability in supply of battery core materials like lithium, cobalt, and graphite, and semiconductor manufacturing chemicals

Watch points

• Regional specification and industrial facility impact — Continuous tracking needed for specific incident location and operational status of major manufacturing and mining facilities
• Logistics infrastructure operational status — Monitoring normal operations of major ports, airports, railway terminals and level of border control reinforcement