Cuba
Cuba (CU)CRITICALCentral America · pop. 11,190,000 · GDP 107,352 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Cuba's tobacco and nickel exports face severe disruption as military force and assaults surge across Havana and Matanzas provinces this week. With 24 critical-severity incidents in 30 days, supply chains should prepare for extended operational shutdowns.
Current status
Cuba is experiencing an acute security crisis with 199 critical and high-severity events recorded over the past 30 days, including military escalation, nuclear alerts, and economic embargoes. The island faces a convergence of military tensions with reports of potential drone strikes against U.S. targets, severe fuel shortages, and diplomatic breakdown. Risk levels have spiked to critical across all major population centers, particularly Havana and Matanzas province.
Supply chain impact
- Nickel exports from Cuba's eastern mines face immediate disruption as military activities spread beyond Havana to key mining regions, affecting global stainless steel and battery supply chains.
- Tourism-dependent economies across the Caribbean will experience spillover effects as Cuba represents a major regional hub for cruise lines and air connectivity.
- U.S. agricultural exporters to Latin America may face rerouted shipping patterns as Cuba-adjacent sea lanes become restricted zones, increasing transit costs and delivery times.
- Sugar and tobacco procurement from Cuban state enterprises is effectively halted due to embargo conditions, forcing buyers to pivot to alternative suppliers in Brazil, Thailand, and Nicaragua.
- Fuel supply chains serving the broader Caribbean are strained as Cuba's energy crisis creates regional shortages and forces redistribution of petroleum products.
Watch points
- Monitor U.S. Coast Guard advisories and shipping lane closures in the Florida Straits, which could disrupt container traffic between Gulf Coast ports and South America.
- Track nickel futures pricing and inventory levels at major exchanges as Cuban production represents approximately 4% of global output.
- Watch for escalation indicators including deployment of additional military assets or formal declaration of exclusion zones around Cuban territorial waters.
Frequently asked questions
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Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- CRITICALEmbargo in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-12
- CRITICALEmbargo in Cuba2026-06-09
- MEDIUMGreen earthquake (Magnitude 6.1M, Depth:26km) in Cuba 08/06/2026 18:00 UTC, 3 thousand in MMI V2026-06-08
- CRITICALEmbargo in Matanzas, Cuba2026-06-08
- HIGHArrest/detain in Matanzas, Cuba2026-06-08
- HIGHExpel/deport in Cuba2026-06-03
- CRITICALBlockade/siege in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-03
- HIGHHalt diplomatic visits in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-03
- HIGHHalt diplomatic visits in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-03
- CRITICALEconomic blockade in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-03
- HIGHReduce diplomatic ties in HolguíCU, Cuba2026-06-02
- HIGHReduce diplomatic ties in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-02
- HIGHReduce diplomatic ties in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-02
- HIGHReduce diplomatic ties in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-01
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-06-01
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Matanzas, Cuba2026-05-29
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Matanzas, Cuba2026-05-29
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Matanzas, Cuba2026-05-29
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba2026-05-28
Related News (30)
- us Freezes Cubas State Oil Company in Escalating Pressure Campaign Against Havanaslguardian.org·2026-06-12
Embargo reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: THE US, CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 6 sources.
- un Human Rights Leader Calls For Cuba Sanctions to be Lifted Immediatelydominicanrepublicpost.com·2026-06-09
Embargo reported in Cuba. Actors: TURK, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 8 sources.
- us Indictment of Raul Castro Comes Amid a Long History of American Aggression Against Cubatheconversation.com·2026-06-08
Embargo reported in Bay Of Pigs, Matanzas, Cuba. Actors: CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 5 sources.
- Foreign Companies Take Flight From us Sanctioned Cubafreemalaysiatoday.com·2026-06-03
Economic blockade reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: PRESIDENT, CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 3 sources.
- Thousands of Cuban Immigrants Were Deported to Mexico According to Recent Reportwlrn.org·2026-06-03
Expel/deport reported in Cuba. Actors: CUBAN, CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Several Latin American Countries Cutting Ties With Cubas Doctorscbc.bb·2026-06-03
Halt diplomatic visits reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: UNITED STATES, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 8 sources.
- Cuba Faces Catastrophe Key European Airline Stops Flightsnewsweek.com·2026-06-02
Reduce diplomatic ties reported in Iberia, HolguíCU, Cuba. Actors: SPANISH, CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 4 sources.
- Trump Latin America Policy Rule of Lawworldpoliticsreview.com·2026-06-01
Use conventional military force reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: CUBAN, CIVILIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Editorial Cuban Revolutions Days Seem to be Numberednews-gazette.com·2026-05-29
Use conventional military force reported in Bay Of Pigs, Matanzas, Cuba. Actors: CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- us Cuba Humiliation Donald Trumptheguardian.com·2026-05-28
Use conventional military force reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: THE US, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Activists Accuse Cuba Manipulating International Community Release Prisonerslatintimes.com·2026-05-26
Arrest/detain reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL, CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- us Sanctions Imposing Energy Starvation on Cubawrp.org.uk·2026-05-25
Embargo reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 8 sources.
- Raul Castro us Indictment Cuba Plane Shootdown Trump Midtermsindianexpress.com·2026-05-24
Chemical weapons used reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- 2 a Nobody Sincerely Believes Cuba Threatens The United Statesnuclear-news.net·2026-05-24
Chemical weapons used reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: IRAN, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Thousands Gather Outside us Embassy in Havana in Protest of Raul Castro Indictmentnews.az·2026-05-23
Demonstration/rally reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: CUBAN, UNITED STATES. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 10 sources.
- South Floridians React as Protests Erupt in Havana Over Raul Castro Indictmentlocal10.com·2026-05-23
Demonstration/rally reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: UNITED STATES, HAVANA. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 6 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Ciudad de La Habana, Cubacubaheadlines.com·2026-05-23
Arrest/detain reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: MILITARY, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Bring on The Havana Tribunalsnypost.com·2026-05-23
Arrest/detain reported in Sierra Maestra, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: AMERICAN, RAUL CASTRO. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
- Cuba Tells Its Citizens to Prepare For War as usnewstribune.com·2026-05-23
Arrest/detain reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: PROSECUTOR, CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 3 sources.
- Embargo in Ciudad de La Habana, Cubacubaheadlines.com·2026-05-23
Embargo reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: ADMINISTRATION, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 10 sources.
- Coerce in Ciudad de La Habana, Cubacubaheadlines.com·2026-05-23
Coerce reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- ex Cuban President Raul Castro Indicted Role Downing Two Planes That Killed Four us Nationalshngn.com·2026-05-23
Chemical weapons used reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: GOVERNMENT, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Doj Treasury Investigate Nonprofits Leaders Allegedly Coordinating Cuba Influence Campaignfoxnews.com·2026-05-23
Embargo reported in Hatuey, Camagü, Cuba. Actors: REGIME, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 5 sources.
- Cubans Rally in Havana Against The Trump Administrations Threats to Attacktruthout.org·2026-05-23
Use conventional military force reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Matanzas, Cubahome.nzcity.co.nz·2026-05-23
Use conventional military force reported in Bay Of Pigs, Matanzas, Cuba. Actors: THE US, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Rare Public Appearances Low Profile Mark Raul Castros Life Since Stepping Down as Cubas Presidentkob.com·2026-05-23
Arrest/detain reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Provincia de Las Tunas, Cubacubaheadlines.com·2026-05-23
Arrest/detain reported in Las Tunas, Provincia de Las Tunas, Cuba. Actors: THE OPPOSITION, CUBA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 3 sources.
- Demonstration/rally in Ciudad de La Habana, Cubacubaheadlines.com·2026-05-23
Demonstration/rally reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: CUBA, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 3 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Ciudad de La Habana, Cubacubaheadlines.com·2026-05-23
Use conventional military force reported in Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Actors: CUBA, PRIEST. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Halt diplomatic visits in Provincia de Mayabeque, Cubacubaheadlines.com·2026-05-22
Halt diplomatic visits reported in Santa Elena, Provincia de Mayabeque, Cuba. Actors: COMPANIES, CUBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 4 sources.