Cobalt

Current status

Cobalt supply chains face elevated risk from widespread disruptions across key production and processing regions over the past 30 days. Critical events totaled 338 out of 741 incidents, with significant security concerns affecting Australia, DR Congo, and the East Asian battery manufacturing hub. Military actions in South Korea and Japan, combined with wildfire outbreaks in Congo and China, have created multiple simultaneous pressure points on the cobalt-to-battery supply chain.

Supply chain impact

• Electric vehicle manufacturers face the highest exposure as 60% of cobalt feeds into lithium-ion batteries, with disruptions hitting both mine production in Congo/Australia and refining capacity in China simultaneously.
• East Asian battery cell producers controlling 85% of global capacity are experiencing direct operational risks from military tensions in South Korea and security incidents in Japan, potentially cascading to Western automakers dependent on these suppliers.
• Aerospace and industrial catalyst users may see secondary impacts as battery demand typically commands premium pricing, with jet engine superalloy production potentially facing cobalt allocation challenges.
• Cuban cobalt exports to China face additional uncertainty amid reported US legal actions against Cuban leadership, potentially tightening an already constrained supply base.
• Shipping routes from Australian mines through East Asian ports encounter elevated risk from the concentrated geographic disruptions affecting both ends of key trade corridors.

Watch points

• Monitor production status at major Australian cobalt mines following recent security incidents, particularly any operational suspensions that could reduce the second-largest global supply source.
• Track resolution of military tensions in South Korea and Japan, as extended disruptions could force battery manufacturers to reduce production schedules within weeks given just-in-time supply chains.
• Watch for wildfire containment progress in DR Congo mining regions, where infrastructure damage could compound existing logistical challenges from the country's limited transport networks.