Indonesia

Current status

Indonesia faces severe political and security instability with 170 events recorded in the last 30 days, including 62 critical incidents concentrated around military actions and coercive measures. The heaviest disruption centers on Jakarta and West Java provinces, with conventional military force deployment across multiple regions from May 9-13, suggesting coordinated government response to widespread unrest. An embargo in Aceh province adds another layer of operational complexity for supply chains.

Supply chain impact

• Palm oil and nickel supply chains face immediate disruption as military operations concentrate in Java provinces where major processing facilities and export infrastructure are located, potentially affecting global vegetable oil and battery metal markets.
• Coal exports from Indonesia, the world's largest thermal coal exporter, are at risk given the broad geographic spread of military actions across key mining regions including East Java and potential port access limitations.
• Textile manufacturing for major global brands operating in West Java industrial zones faces production delays and worker safety concerns amid ongoing military operations in the region.
• The Aceh embargo directly threatens access to northern Sumatra's palm oil plantations and could disrupt shipments through Medan and other northern ports serving European and South Asian markets.
• Automotive assembly operations by Japanese and Korean manufacturers in Greater Jakarta area may experience workforce disruptions and component delivery delays due to security measures in the capital region.

Watch points

• Monitor Jakarta's Tanjung Priok port operations and West Java's industrial corridors for continued military presence or transport restrictions that could cascade into broader export delays.
• Track whether the Aceh embargo expands to other provinces or affects the critical Malacca Strait shipping lanes that handle Indonesia's northern export flows.
• Watch for escalation signals including curfews, internet shutdowns, or formal states of emergency that would trigger force majeure clauses and halt operations across multiple commodity sectors.