Nickel
NickelCRITICALbattery-metals
A silvery-white metal used primarily in stainless steel production, which accounts for roughly 70% of global nickel demand. Electric vehicle batteries represent the fastest-growing segment, requiring high-purity nickel for lithium-ion cathodes. Other applications include alloys for aerospace, marine equipment, and industrial machinery. Indonesia and the Philippines together produce about 60% of the world's nickel ore, while Russia supplies approximately 15%. Indonesia dominates nickel processing and has emerged as the largest refined nickel producer following major investments in smelting capacity. China processes significant volumes of imported ore from Southeast Asian suppliers. Supply disruptions stem from Indonesia's history of export restrictions, including ore bans implemented in 2014 and 2020 to boost domestic processing. Russia's position as a major refined nickel supplier creates sanctions-related supply risks. The concentration of mining operations in tropical, politically sensitive regions makes production vulnerable to weather events and regulatory changes.
Why this score? · top 3 of 329 events driving the 30-day risk
Top producers
Related industries
Passing chokepoints
AI Brief
Military escalation across Japan and Russia this week signals potential supply chain disruption for nickel, with both countries hosting critical processing infrastructure. Indonesia's continued production stability offers the only near-term buffer against refined nickel shortages.
Current status
Nickel markets face heightened geopolitical risk with 474 security events recorded over the past 30 days, including 276 critical-severity incidents concentrated across key supply chain regions. Military escalation in Russia and East Asia, combined with wildfire activity in China, has driven spot prices up 9.8% to $25,430 per ton. The severity and geographic spread of disruptions across major producing and processing countries signals elevated supply chain vulnerability.
Supply chain impact
- Stainless steel manufacturers face immediate exposure as 70% of nickel demand serves this sector, with Russian supply disruptions affecting European and North American steel producers who rely on refined nickel imports.
- EV battery supply chains are critically vulnerable through Indonesia's Sulawesi smelting operations and East Asian battery-cell manufacturing, where Chinese wildfires and regional military activity threaten the 85% of global battery production capacity concentrated in China, South Korea, and Japan.
- Tesla, CATL, and other major battery manufacturers dependent on Indonesian nickel processing face potential production delays as alternative sources lack the processing capacity and cost advantages of Sulawesi's Chinese-funded smelters.
- Aerospace and marine equipment manufacturers using high-grade nickel alloys confront supply constraints from Russian sanctions and potential processing disruptions in Asia.
- Philippines nickel ore exports to China face heightened logistics risk amid regional military tensions, potentially forcing buyers toward higher-cost alternative suppliers in Canada and New Caledonia.
Watch points
- Monitor Indonesia's nickel export policies and any new processing restrictions that could further tighten refined nickel availability, particularly given the country's history of sudden ore export bans.
- Track escalation of military activities in East Asia that could disrupt battery manufacturing in China, South Korea, and Japan, as alternative production capacity remains extremely limited globally.
- Watch for extended wildfire activity in China affecting nickel processing facilities and transportation networks, as this could compound existing supply pressures from geopolitical tensions.
Frequently asked questions
What is nickel used for in modern industry?
Which countries control global nickel production?
What supply chain risks should companies monitor for nickel?
Why is nickel important for electric vehicle supply chains?
Nickel supply chain risk by country
90d risk trend
90d price trend (DBB)
Trade flows
Source: UN Comtrade · 2026-04Recent related events (20)
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Tatarstan, Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALAssault in Moskva, Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALCoerce in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALAssault in Moskva, Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Moskva, Russia2026-06-14
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in ID (202 detections)2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALEmbargo in Irkutskaya Oblast', Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Mordoviya, Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Novosibirskaya Oblast', Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALActive wildfire cluster in RU (1283 detections)2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Russia2026-06-13
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in ID (159 detections)2026-06-13
- CRITICALActive wildfire cluster in RU (2972 detections)2026-06-13
- CRITICALCurfew/martial law in Kyoto, Japan2026-06-13
Related News (30)
- Armed Forces Intercept Russian Shadowwalesonline.co.uk·2026-06-14
Coerce reported in Russia. Actors: BRITISH, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.2 · 6 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Russiamauinews.com·2026-06-14
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: EUROPE, VLADIMIR PUTIN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Assault in Moskva, Russiakyivpost.com·2026-06-14
Assault reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: PRESIDENT, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 6 sources.
- Tank/artillery attack in Moskva, Russiakyivpost.com·2026-06-14
Tank/artillery attack reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Embargo in Irkutskaya Oblast', Russiakyivpost.com·2026-06-14
Embargo reported in Novaya Moskva, Irkutskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: MOSKVA. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 3 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Novosibirskaya Oblast', Russiakyivpost.com·2026-06-14
Use conventional military force reported in Lugansk, Novosibirskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, CIVILIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Eight Wars Between States And 65 Conflicts in This is The Record For The Last 80 Yearsodnako.org·2026-06-14
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: IRAN, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Tank/artillery attack in Russiaen.interfax.com.ua·2026-06-13
Tank/artillery attack reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Homosexual Termite Regicidescience20.com·2026-06-13
Curfew/martial law reported in Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan. Actors: JAPAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 7 sources.
- AL CARNS Drones Changed Face War Change Toodailymail.com·2026-06-13
Tank/artillery attack reported in Alabuga, Novosibirskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, UKRAINIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 7 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Dagestan, Russiaeng.kavkaz-uzel.eu·2026-06-13
Arrest/detain reported in Dagestan, Dagestan, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, EMPLOYEE. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 3 sources.
- The Wellspring of Lifethelight.com.au·2026-06-13
Use conventional military force reported in Japan. Actors: COMMANDER, JAPANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Nuclear alert in Kareliya, Russiayle.fi·2026-06-12
Nuclear alert reported in Petrozavodsk, Kareliya, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 10 sources.
- Ukraine Russia Putin Oil Attacksmirror.co.uk·2026-06-12
Embargo reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, UKRAINE. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 8 sources.
- She Came to Save Chinas Lgbtq Past Then Chinatown Gave Her a New Callingsfpublicpress.org·2026-06-12
Coerce reported in Shanghai, Shanghai, China. Actors: CHINA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Students Tell Military to Return to The Barracks at Jakarta Protesten.tempo.co·2026-06-12
Demonstration/rally reported in Jakarta, Jakarta Raya, Indonesia. Actors: INDONESIAN, INDONESIA. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 3 sources.
- North Koreas Kim Voices Full Support For Russia Sends National Day Message to Putin Kcna Sayswhbl.com·2026-06-12
Nuclear alert reported in Pyongyang, P'yongyang-si, North Korea. Actors: NORTH KOREA. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 5 sources.
- South Koreas ex President Yoon Sentenced to 30 Years in Drone Casedailysabah.com·2026-06-12
Arrest/detain reported in Pyongyang, P'yongyang-si, North Korea. Actors: MILITARY, PYONGYANG. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Jiangsu, Chinaisp.netscape.com·2026-06-12
Arrest/detain reported in Huizhong, Jiangsu, China. Actors: CHINA, MYANMAR. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- WS6a2a00c4a310deb4d974europe.chinadaily.com.cn·2026-06-11
Military force (coercive) reported in Yangtze River, China (general), China. Actors: CHINA, INDUSTRY. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- is Wuxi Apptecs Buyback Campaign Working Amid Mounting us Pressurebenzinga.com·2026-06-11
Military force (coercive) reported in Wuxi, Jiangsu, China. Actors: CHINA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
- Letters to The Editor Assams Battle Against jesentinelassam.com·2026-06-11
Use conventional military force reported in Japan. Actors: JAPANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Japan Sees Rising Bear Attacks 27 Injured Killed 803newkerala.com·2026-06-11
Use conventional military force reported in Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan. Actors: JAPAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Embargo in Moskva, Russianovinite.com·2026-06-10
Embargo reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: DEPUTY, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 5 sources.
- eu Contract Ban Fails to Bite as Russian Arctic Lng Shipments Surgeeuobserver.com·2026-06-10
Military force (coercive) reported in Russia. Actors: THE EU, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Japanese City Closes Nearly 100 Schools After Bear Sightings as Post Hibernation Attacks Risectvnews.ca·2026-06-10
Coerce reported in Japan. Actors: JAPAN, SCHOOL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- The Oreshnik Secret Revealed a New Russian Wave of Terror is Coming For eu Data Centers And a Surprise Target in Kievbankingnews.gr·2026-06-10
Use conventional military force reported in Oreshnik, Kirovskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: PRESIDENT, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 16 sources.
- Conflicts Are on The Rise Globally at The Highest Level Since Wwii Data Showskuow.org·2026-06-09
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: UKRAINE, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Interview Chie Hayakawa Renoirfilmmakermagazine.com·2026-06-09
Chemical weapons used reported in Philippines. Actors: FILIPINO, WORKER. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Negros Occidental Ready to Deploy Rescue Teams to Mindanaomanilatimes.net·2026-06-09
Military exercise reported in Sarangani, Davao del Sur, Philippines. Actors: PHILIPPINE, GOVERNMENT. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 4 sources.