Russia
Russia (RU)CRITICALEurope · pop. 143,820,000 · GDP 2,240,422 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Military strikes intensified across Russia's southern industrial regions this week, with Ukrainian forces targeting defense facilities in Rostov and Samara oblasts. Export infrastructure faces mounting disruption as conflict spreads beyond border zones.
Current status
Russia faces severe supply chain disruption risks following the largest Ukrainian drone attack since the invasion began, with over 500 drones targeting multiple regions including Moscow, killing at least 3 people. The past 30 days recorded 500 events with 366 classified as critical severity, indicating an unprecedented escalation in military activities across key industrial regions. Economic blockades in Chechnya and Ingushetiya compound transportation vulnerabilities, while conventional military operations span from Moscow to Khabarovsk, affecting critical energy and mining infrastructure.
Supply chain impact
- Energy exports face immediate disruption risks as drone attacks target Moscow area refineries and infrastructure, threatening crude oil and natural gas deliveries to European and Asian buyers dependent on Russian energy supplies.
- Metal and mining operations in affected regions including Ryazanskaya Oblast and Khabarovskiy Kray may experience production delays, impacting global iron ore and steel supply chains serving automotive and construction industries.
- Transportation corridors through western Russia to Europe face heightened security risks, particularly affecting rail and pipeline networks that carry energy exports and raw materials to Germany, China, and other major trading partners.
- Defense industry supply chains are under severe stress as military operations concentrate around key production centers, potentially affecting global aerospace and military equipment manufacturers relying on Russian titanium and other specialized metals.
- Embargo actions compound existing sanctions effects, further restricting access to Russian commodities and forcing buyers to accelerate supply chain diversification efforts.
Watch points
- Monitor energy infrastructure damage assessments and production capacity reports from Gazprom and Rosneft over the next 2-3 weeks to gauge actual vs. perceived supply disruption.
- Track escalation patterns in drone attack frequency and geographic spread, particularly targeting of critical industrial hubs in Siberia and the Urals where mining operations are concentrated.
- Watch for additional regional blockades or transportation restrictions that could affect the Trans-Siberian Railway and other key logistics arteries connecting Asian and European markets.
Frequently asked questions
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Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALCoerce in Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALAssault in Moskva, Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Moskva, Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALEmbargo in Irkutskaya Oblast', Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Novosibirskaya Oblast', Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALAssault in Moskva, Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Mordoviya, Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Tatarstan, Russia2026-06-14
- CRITICALActive wildfire cluster in RU (1283 detections)2026-06-14
- HIGHArrest/detain in Dagestan, Russia2026-06-13
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Novosibirskaya Oblast', Russia2026-06-13
- HIGHArrest/detain in Dagestan, Russia2026-06-13
- HIGHArrest/detain in Moskva, Russia2026-06-13
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Russia2026-06-13
Related News (30)
- Use conventional military force in Mordoviya, Russiakyivpost.com·2026-06-14
Use conventional military force reported in Pokrovsk, Mordoviya, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, CIVILIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Tatarstan, Russiakyivpost.com·2026-06-14
Use conventional military force reported in Tatarstan, Tatarstan, Russia. Actors: UKRAINE, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Tank/artillery attack in Moskva, Russiakyivpost.com·2026-06-14
Tank/artillery attack reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Assault in Moskva, Russiakyivpost.com·2026-06-14
Assault reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: PRESIDENT, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 6 sources.
- Armed Forces Intercept Russian Shadowwalesonline.co.uk·2026-06-14
Coerce reported in Russia. Actors: BRITISH, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.2 · 6 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Russiamauinews.com·2026-06-14
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: EUROPE, VLADIMIR PUTIN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Eight Wars Between States And 65 Conflicts in This is The Record For The Last 80 Yearsodnako.org·2026-06-14
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, ISRAEL. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Pierce Brosnan James Bond Movies Best Scenescollider.com·2026-06-13
Assault reported in Petersburg, Sankt-Peterburg, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 4 sources.
- Tank/artillery attack in Russiaen.interfax.com.ua·2026-06-13
Tank/artillery attack reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Dagestan, Russiaeng.kavkaz-uzel.eu·2026-06-13
Arrest/detain reported in Dagestan, Dagestan, Russia. Actors: KRASNODAR, JOURNALIST. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- AL CARNS Drones Changed Face War Change Toodailymail.com·2026-06-13
Tank/artillery attack reported in Alabuga, Novosibirskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, UKRAINIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 7 sources.
- Russian Stuff Blowing updailykos.com·2026-06-12
Assault reported in Petersburg, Sankt-Peterburg, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 8 sources.
- Nuclear alert in Kareliya, Russiayle.fi·2026-06-12
Nuclear alert reported in Petrozavodsk, Kareliya, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, MILITARY. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 10 sources.
- Ukraine Russia Putin Oil Attacksmirror.co.uk·2026-06-12
Embargo reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, UKRAINE. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 8 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Kabardino-Balkariya, Russiaeng.kavkaz-uzel.eu·2026-06-11
Arrest/detain reported in Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkariya, Russia. Actors: PROSECUTOR, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Cryptohack Roundup Sentencing in 97m Laundering Case agovinfosecurity.com·2026-06-11
Reduce diplomatic ties reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, SOUTHEAST ASIA. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 4 sources.
- eu Russia Sanctions 11 Crypto Platformscointelegraph.com·2026-06-10
Military force (coercive) reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: EUROPEAN COMMISSION, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Embargo in Moskva, Russianovinite.com·2026-06-10
Embargo reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, UKRAINE. Tension (Goldstein): -8 · 3 sources.
- eu Contract Ban Fails to Bite as Russian Arctic Lng Shipments Surgeeuobserver.com·2026-06-10
Military force (coercive) reported in Russia. Actors: THE EU, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- The Oreshnik Secret Revealed a New Russian Wave of Terror is Coming For eu Data Centers And a Surprise Target in Kievbankingnews.gr·2026-06-10
Use conventional military force reported in Oreshnik, Kirovskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: PRESIDENT, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 16 sources.
- Conflicts on Rise Globally Highest Level Since Wwii Data Showsaspenpublicradio.org·2026-06-09
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: UKRAINE, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 18 sources.
- Conflicts Are on The Rise Globally at The Highest Level Since Wwii Data Showskuow.org·2026-06-09
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: UKRAINE, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- 4 Killed Over 20 Injured in a Russian Missile Attack in Ukraines Kharkiv Regiontimesofindia.indiatimes.com·2026-06-09
Bomb attack reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, UKRAINE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Barron Trumps Secret Manosphere Connection to Tate Brothers Revealedthedailybeast.com·2026-06-08
Assault reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, LONDON. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 3 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Russiaruthfullyyours.com·2026-06-08
Arrest/detain reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Vladimir Putin Daughters Assassination Attemptmirror.co.uk·2026-06-08
Economic blockade reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 6 sources.
- Why xi Jinping is Meeting Kim Jong un in Pyongyangirishtimes.com·2026-06-08
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: CHINA, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Ukrainian Official Wants Russian Church Expelled From Wccchristianpost.com·2026-06-08
Reduce diplomatic ties reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: CHRISTIANITY, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 6 sources.
- Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan Claims Victory Following General Electionwinnipegfreepress.com·2026-06-08
Arrest/detain reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: GOVERNMENT, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
- Costa Rica Raises Yellow Alert for Heavy Rains in Pacific and Central Valley - The Tico TimesThe Tico Times·2026-06-07
Costa Rica Raises Yellow Alert for Heavy Rains in Pacific and Central Valley The Tico Times