[Jakarta, Jakarta Raya, Indonesia] Nuclear alert — INDONESIAN

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1) Summary A nuclear-related crisis situation occurred in Jakarta, Indonesia on April 16, 2026, assessed as a major security incident with a tension index of -7.2. Simultaneously, a helicopter disappearance has been reported in the Kalimantan region, heightening overall security instability. Political instability in Indonesia, the world's largest producer of palm oil and nickel, is likely to cause serious ripple effects on global supply chains.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Palm oil supply disruption risk: Indonesia is the largest producer accounting for approximately 60% of global palm oil production, and production/export disruptions due to security crises are expected to cause spikes in global edible oil and biofuel markets
• Nickel mining operation instability: Political instability in Indonesia, the largest producer of nickel which is a key raw material for electric vehicle batteries, raises concerns of cascading impacts across the entire battery supply chain
• Southeast Asian logistics hub dysfunction: Disruption of Indonesia's logistics network centered on Jakarta could create bottlenecks in the entire Southeast Asian supply chain network
• Agricultural production base deterioration: Security instability in major agricultural regions such as Kalimantan directly impacts palm plantation operations and harvesting activities

3) Watch points

• Government stability indicators: Need to continuously track the Indonesian government's crisis response capabilities and political stability recovery to assess long-term supply chain impacts
• Key industrial region operational status: Real-time monitoring required of actual operation rates and export port operational conditions in core palm oil and nickel production regions such as Sumatra and Kalimantan