Wildfire in Australia — Green alert

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1. Summary

Wildfires that began in Australia on April 11 have continued through April 16 and are classified as medium-level risk. The Country Fire Authority (CFA) is responding, operating a 24-hour monitoring system through AI-based surveillance. This poses an additional risk factor to Australian forest areas that are in the recovery process following the major 2019-2020 wildfires ('Black Summer').

2. Supply-chain impact

• Agriculture and dairy industry — Direct threat to production facilities and pastures of Australian dairy companies, with potential disruptions to raw milk production and dairy supply chains, particularly in areas near the fires
• Timber and pulp industry — Forest losses from wildfires could have medium to long-term impacts on Australia's timber raw material supply and could act as a factor in rising global timber prices
• Transportation infrastructure — Road and railway closures within fire zones raise concerns about temporary disruptions to logistics networks connecting Australia's inland areas with ports
• Power supply — Transmission line damage or preventive power outages could cause intermittent impacts on manufacturing and logistics center operations

3. Watch points

• Fire spread range and suppression progress — Track expansion of affected areas and timing of complete suppression through Australian Bureau of Meteorology and fire authority announcements
• Major transportation infrastructure recovery schedule — Timing of reopening highways and railway lines closed due to fires and status of alternative route operations
• Damage scale compared to 2019-2020 major wildfires — Need to assess medium to long-term economic impacts through comparison with past megafires